By Anders Lorenzen
We previously reported that, despite the shift in US energy policy during the second Trump Administration, the outlook for solar in the country remained buoyant.
Now, a new analysis takes a different view.
A solar energy forecast conducted by the energy research consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which has historically had ties to the fossil fuel industry, and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) shows mixed news for the US solar industry.
US solar: Record-breaking start to 2025
While the start of 2025 has been record-breaking, a combination of a favourable policy shift towards the fossil fuel industry away from the clean energy industry, tariffs, and other challenges brings challenges to the sector.
The report produced by the two groups reveals that in the first quarter of 2025, a record of 8.6 gigawatt (GW) of solar capacity was added in the US.
US solar forecast: Downturn expected post 2025
The report predicts that in 2030, newly added solar capacity will be 10% lower than in 2025.
This downturn prediction has been made due to the volatile tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration, although this is changing on a weekly basis.
Future plausible US clean energy funding cuts and policy changes, such as cuts to clean energy tax credits, have not been included in the forecasting.
The uncertainty of the IRA
When it comes to US clean energy products in the coming years, considerable uncertainty surrounds the future of the groundbreaking Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed by the Biden Administration in 2022.
The legislation has been instrumental in US clean energy growth for the last couple of years.
But SEIA is concerned that a bill passed in the US House last month could dent the clean energy boom.
However, the IRA was put together in such a way that it has largely benefited Republican states, meaning that those states would likely push back on efforts to weaken it.
Solar experts: Don’t jeopardise clean energy’s role in US energy security
The solar sector is a win-win for the US economy and represents a notable American success story. This is the message from Abigail Ross, the president and CEO of SEIA who think it is foolish to gamble with, stating, “If Congress fails to fix the legislation passed by the House – which would render the energy tax incentives unusable – lawmakers will trigger a dangerous energy shortage that will raise our electric bills and stop America’s manufacturing boom in its tracks. The Senate still has time to get this right and secure President Trump’s vision for American energy dominance.”
For Zoë Gaston, Principal Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, changing the clean energy tax credit could result in a significant own goal and jeopardise “solar’s growing dominance in the US energy mix”. She added, “The proposed changes to federal tax incentives, along with ongoing tariff concerns, could significantly impact this growth trajectory and potentially lead to energy supply challenges. It’s important to consider the critical role of solar in America’s energy landscape.”
2025 at a glance
In the first quarter of 2025, the US installed 10.8 GW of solar capacity—a decline of 7% compared to the same period last year, but still near record highs.
Additionally, in the states of Texas and Ohio, eight new or expanded solar factories also opened during this quarter.
In 2025, the US solar sector is expected to remain on target to install 48.6 GW of new capacity.
Uncertain outlook
But by 2030, that will have declined to 43.5 GW annually.
The report notes that, due to the demand from corporate buyers, utility-scale projects are positively impacting the industry by creating momentum.
However, the ongoing concerns about federal policy will constrain development.
US solar: Confidence is already being eroded
According to the report, some of the confidence in the sector is already being eroded, with residential solar installations having declined by 13% during the first quarter of 2025 to 1.1 GW.
The report concludes that this is a result of the sector struggling with high interest rates, tariffs, and less favourable state policies.
However, they have found that due to increasing electricity rates, that part of the market is predicted to grow between 2025 and 2030, making it more attractive to consumers.
The by far most significant part of the solar sector is the utility sector, which saw 9 GW of solar installations in the first quarter of 2025.
Five states are leading the growth in US solar
The majority of solar growth was led by just five states, with Texas, Florida, Ohio, Indiana and California accounting for 65% of new capacity.
Four out of those five states are being run by the Republicans, with only California being under Democratic leadership.
On the 2024 US Election campaign trail, Donald Trump called the IRA clean energy tax credits expensive, unnecessary and harmful to business.
Anders Lorenzen is the founding Editor of A greener life, a greener world.
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