Researchers at the Columbia Climate School, with support from the Rockefeller Foundation, have unveiled a new index that integrates countries’ vulnerabilities to natural and human-caused hazards with their ability to access financing to pay for prevention, recovery and rebuilding actions. The Climate Finance (CliF) Vulnerability Index’s interactive dashboard displays current and future risk exposure scenarios of 188 nations and identifies the 65 most at-risk, or “red zone” nations. Two-thirds of these countries are in Africa.
The goals of the index are to promote more comprehensive risk assessment standards, help agencies target resources to mitigate vulnerability, and more effectively reach communities facing disaster and financial risks.
“Climate shocks are becoming more frequent and intense, yet many of the nations facing the highest threats are also heavily indebted, limiting their access to financial markets,” said Jeff Schlegelmilch, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at the Columbia Climate School, who led the development of the index. “Traditional aid models based on GDP per capita or income level don’t capture the unique and growing risks of climate exposure along with limited access to capital to manage these risks.”
The CliF Vulnerability Index provides a novel and more realistic picture of risk, including access to financing to address climate vulnerabilities, said Schlegelmilch.
Heatwaves, floods and other extreme events caused by a warming world could lead to 14.5 million deaths and $12.5 trillion in global economic losses by 2050, according to the World Economic Forum. The United Nations Environment Programme also estimates that the annual adaptation financing gap could be as much as $387 billion a year. The World Bank calculates that without significant investment, climate change could push up to 132 million people into poverty by 2030. At the same time, high borrowing costs and limited access to finance keep many nations trapped in a cycle of climate disaster response and recovery, without making true gains toward climate mitigation and adaptation.
“As governments around the world prepare for the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development next week, the gap between development goals and the needed financing has never been larger,” said Eric Pelofsky, vice president for Global Economic Recovery at the Rockefeller Foundation. “The CliF Vulnerability Index launches an important conversation about the data that should drive scarce resources to vulnerable countries that are facing immense challenges in accessing financing. By using the index, donors and funders can prioritize support for countries that are potentially living one disaster away from crisis.”
The index integrates data on debt sustainability, financial integration and sophistication, and governance considerations that influence lending conditions with vulnerability assessments related to cyclones, floods, droughts, earthquakes, conflicts and other hazards.
“A donor interested in funding climate adaptation and resiliency would like to see their contribution have the maximum impact possible,” said Gautam Jain, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and the index’s co-creator. “The index can help the donor pick between two countries that face similar climate disaster risks based on where their funds can go further, as the index explicitly includes a separate dimension covering each country’s ability to access financing.”
Users can filter index results through “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios for either a 2050 or 2080 timeline. These four scenario options account for varying degrees of emissions, population growth and international collaboration on climate mitigation and adaptation. Of the 65 nations that appear in the red zone, 47 remain in that category across all four scenarios.
Additional key findings
- More than 2 billion people live in red zone nations, where the risk of a major hazard and/or disaster is high and access to finance is dwindling. Almost all the 65 nations in the red zone are low- and middle-income nations as defined by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and many are home to some of the fastest-growing populations in the world.
- Forty-three red zone countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. They account for nearly 1.2 billion people. Africa’s continent-wide population is expected to more than double by 2070, and 21 nations are in debt distress or at high risk of entering debt distress. The African nations that rank in the bottom 10 across the four climate scenarios include Angola, Burundi, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, Lesotho, Malawi, South Sudan, Sudan and Zambia.
- Six Asian-Pacific countries appear in the red zone, and they are home to more than 520 million people: Bangladesh, Kiribati, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Asia was the world’s most disaster-hit region from weather, climate and water-related hazards in 2024, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
- The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region has eight red zone nations, home to more than 100 million people: Belize, Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras and Venezuela. The LAC region is vulnerable to climate change and requires investment of between $470 million and $1.3 trillion to deliver on the Paris Agreement goals, according to the Inter-American Development Bank.
- Ukraine and Cyprus are Europe’s two red zone countries and have a combined population of 39 million people. Cyprus appears in the 2050 optimistic, 2050 pessimistic, and 2080 pessimistic scenarios. Ukraine appears in 2050 optimistic and 2080 optimistic scenarios.
- Across all four climate scenarios, eight of the 10 nations best positioned to respond are members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). They are Denmark, Estonia, Japan, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland, Sweden and the United States. China also ranks in the top 10 across all four climate scenarios. Thailand falls within the top 10 for the 2050 and 2080 optimistic scenarios, while the United Arab Emirates does so for the 2050 and 2080 pessimistic scenarios.
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About Columbia Climate School
To address the urgent challenges facing our planet, the Columbia Climate School was launched in 2020 to educate future climate leaders, support groundbreaking research and foster essential solutions. The National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP), Columbia Climate School, at Columbia University works to understand and improve the capacity to prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. NCDP focuses on the readiness of governmental and non-governmental systems; the complexities of population recovery; the power of community engagement; and the risks of human vulnerability.
See the index here: and to read the technical methodology report, visit:
About The Rockefeller Foundation
The Rockefeller Foundation is a pioneering philanthropy built on collaborative partnerships at the frontiers of science, technology and innovation that enable individuals, families and communities to flourish. We make big bets to promote the well-being of humanity. Today, we are focused on advancing human opportunity and reversing the climate crisis by transforming systems in food, health, energy and finance. For more information, sign up for our newsletter at www.rockefellerfoundation.org/subscribe and follow us on X @RockefellerFdn and LinkedIn @the-rockefeller-foundation.
Media Contacts:
Francesco Fiondella, Columbia Climate School: [email protected]
Jessica Kosmider and Javier Romualdo Perez, The Rockefeller Foundation: [email protected]