By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
The Mountain West, as the best Group of Five conference for at least one more year, will once again have the inside track to a spot in the Playoff.
Obviously, the AAC could have something to say about that, but as we start the 2025 campaign, it seems likely that the winner of the Mountain West will be sitting pretty.
Next year, we will be approaching a season with a completely different look and feel—but that’s a topic for another day.
So, let’s set the table for the final season of the MW as we currently know it.
The conference has some separation at the top, with a few teams seemingly standing above the rest. Beyond them, the league may not offer a clear second-tier leader, which should make for some exciting toss-up games.
Here are mini previews for each team with my predicted order of finish.
1. Boise State Broncos
As much as things change, some things remain the same. Boise State is poised for yet another run at the conference crown and the Playoff birth that likely comes with it.
The Broncos have two big chances in the nonconference to make noise this season as well.
The opener at USF will be a test, but also an early chance for the MW to go head-to-head with the AAC. The October trip to Notre Dame provides an opportunity to shine on the national stage.
Ashton Jeanty has taken his services to Oakland, but the Bronco offense should still be clicking at a high level.
Maddux Madsen will take the offense on his shoulders and is poised to break out in 2025. He will have a lot of help, though, with a pair of backs carrying the load in Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod.
The line will be the best in the conference, and the receiving crew should improve over its performance in 2024. Matt Lauter should again be the top target.
The Bronco defense took a hit with Andrew Simpson transferring to North Carolina, but the unit will be solid. BSU is going to create pressure with Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Sterling Lane coming off the edge.
The back end of the defense will be a real strength with Ty Bennefield, Jeremiah Erby, and Davon Banks anchoring a lockdown secondary that will allow the front to make plays in the backfield.
2. San Jose State Spartans
The Spartans are poised for a breakout season in Year Two under Ken Niumatalolo. San Jose State has a talented roster and a very forgiving schedule.
With home games in conference play against Air Force and Fresno State, while also missing both Boise State and UNLV, the Spartans have a good shot at landing in the MW title game.
With that would come a chance to crack the national stage with a Playoff run. San Jose State has a road date at Texas and will travel to Stanford two weeks later.
Beyond those tests, the non-con games are winnable. It is not beyond the realm of possibility for the Spartans to finish the regular season at 11-1.
The offense will put up points with Walker Eget directing things and Floyd Chalk running the ball. The defense has playmakers in Gafa Faga and Jordan Pollard.
3. UNLV Rebels
Barry Odem took UNLV to another level in building up the program, but now he is off to Purdue.
In Dan Mullen, the Rebels have an established and capable head man to step into those shoes.
Mullen has filled out the roster with transfers from Power Four programs and should have UNLV ready to take the next step.
Just over 77% of the slated starters on the roster are transfers from last season.
The Rebels have the talent to compete with Boise State for conference supremacy, and their meeting on the Blue Turf in October could be for a potential Playoff bid.
If the Rebels can continue to force turnovers and play opportunistic defense, the offense will be able to pounce on opponents.
The debut season in Vegas for Mullen could be a special one.
4. Colorado State Rams
The Rams seemed like a team set to take the next step last season, but it turned into a slight step back.
This season, CSU will need to capitalize on its third year with Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi at quarterback.
Perhaps the bigger key for the Rams will be to get good penetration from their defensive front, and specifically, Mukendi Wa-Kalonji.
If the senior can get more production disrupting the QB, along with Ja’Ques Evans on the edge, the Rams could make that jump this season.
5. Air Force Falcons
The Falcons are looking to rebound from a disappointing 2024, in which they struggled to run the ball up to their standards in the first half of the season.
Officially, it was the worst running campaign under Troy Calhoun, marking the only time—aside from the abbreviated 2020 season—that Air Force failed to reach 3,000 rushing yards in his tenure.
The ground attack improved at the end of last season, and the Falcons won some games. No coincidence there!
Air Force’s ground game is expected to return to its normal production levels, and that, along with a solid defense, should get the Falcons back to their winning ways.
6. Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno State has a track record of hiring the right head coach at the right time. As the Bulldogs prepare to transition to the Pac-12, Matt Entz seems like another good fit.
But perhaps more importantly, Entz seems to have some players who can lead the way.
E.J. Warner has a ton of experience and will direct an offense that, while needing to replace some key parts, is a veteran group.
Last season, the offense lacked any sort of running game at all. If the Bulldogs are to improve this season, the ground attack will need to produce at a higher rate.
7. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
This should be Timmy Chang’s best team at Hawai’i, and with the offense he wants finally in place, he might just reach the mark.
Micah Alejado came up big in the final two games last year and should have the run-and-shoot offense humming this season.
He did not throw an interception in 2024, tossing six touchdown passes.
That efficiency is what this offense needs with Pofele Ashlock and Nick Cenacle leading a talented group of receivers that can help the young QB continue to develop.
Let’s not forget the total rebuild that Chang inherited. Progress has been made, as evidenced by his 10 wins over the past two seasons.
This year should see a big jump in the on-field product, but the Warriors might still fall short of their ultimate goals.
8. San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs are just 14-23 in the last two seasons.
Now in its third year as the home of San Diego State, impressive Snapdragon Stadium deserves better than a program with a win percentage of .378.
The fast-paced attack of Sean Lewis never quite got off the ground in 2024.
Far too many three-and-outs created issues on both sides of the ball. Moving fast for three plays on offense does nothing but tax your defense.
The offense needs to sustain drives this season.
And if it does that, the defense will provide plenty of excitement as well, with Trey White, one of the nation’s most dominant rush ends, causing havoc off the edge.
9. Utah State Aggies
The Aggies are in full rebuild mode, but Bronco Mendenhall has been in that position before. We will see if he can work his magic once again.
This Utah State rebuild could take a little bit longer than his prior stops. The portal was not kind to USU, and they have some holes in the roster.
The offense might not be as explosive as last season, but the Aggies will still be potent behind Bryson Barnes, provided the quarterback limits his turnovers.
The biggest issues for Utah State in 2024 were on the defensive side of the ball, as they allowed almost 500 yards and 38 points per game.
If the turnaround is to be immediate, the defense will need to be much better.
10. New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos are on their fifth head coach in the last 16 seasons. That is not a good track record of turnover at the top.
It seems like they had gotten out of the revolving door with the hiring of Bronco Mendenhall—until he bolted for Utah State.
Enter Jason Eck, who is expected to bring stability and success after a 23-13 run at Idaho.
Losing Devon Dampier was a big blow, but the running game should still produce with Scottre Humphrey becoming a star. The workhorse back should churn out yards this season.
The MW has some really good teams at the top, but there are enough solid teams throughout the rest of the league to provide several 50/50 games across the board.
If the Lobos can win some of those tossups, they could produce a surprisingly fun first season for Eck.
But let’s not get too excited yet; those tossups could go the other way, transforming 2025 into a long season.
11. Wyoming Cowboys
Things went south quickly last season for the Cowboys. The offense was abysmal, and the defense could not come up with big stops when needed.
This season, the offense will be better, and the Cowboys could see some of the close losses from last season turn into wins.
Kaden Anderson should offer the Cowboys a lot more at quarterback than a season ago.
The defense should get a boost from the offense improving and be solid at the back end.
The Cowboys might not be where they want to be yet, but things should be moving in the right direction.
12. Nevada Wolf Pack
The Wolf Pack will be better this season than last, but they still have a way to go before this program is back to being good.
Jeff Choate and his staff were faced with a major rebuild last season, and the talent level is better now than it was 12 months ago.
This season, the offense will be under the control of Chubby Purdy, who takes over from Brendan Lewis. The question is what he will have to work with in the receiver department.
The defense will need to make more stops.
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).