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By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
Week Five in the Mountain West brings just one conference matchup, but it has the feel of a few more.
Could that be because there are a couple more involving some future conference foes or future former conference foes? Is that a thing? Well, I guess I will make it a thing.
We also get a few rivalry games this week.
All told, the MW offers up a seven-game slate, and we will take a deeper look at six of those games. (Apologies to Boise State and App State, a compelling intersectional matchup that gets left out.)
Here are my previews for Utah State at Vanderbilt, San Diego State at Northern Illinois, New Mexico State at New Mexico, Hawaii at Air Force, San Jose State at Stanford, and Washington State at Colorado State.
Utah State Aggies at No. 18 Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, September 27
9:45 AM PT, SEC Network
Line: Vanderbilt –22.5
Over/Under: 59.5
The Aggies are in for a tall test in Nashville this weekend. Utah State hits the road for the second time this season, and once again, a ranked opponent awaits.
This marks the first time in program history that USU’s first two road games have come against ranked foes.
This is not your Grandfather’s Vanderbilt squad. . . Heck, this isn’t even your slightly older brother’s Vandy team!
The Commodores are really good and really explosive. Currently ranked 18th in the AP Poll, they are averaging 47.5 points per game.
Diego Pavia is in complete command of the Vandy offense, which has been dominant early. Pavia ranks 11th in the nation in QB Efficiency while throwing for 222.5 yards per game.
But the Aggies will also need to contend with his legs, as he is going for 53.8 per outing on the ground.
The Aggie defense has made significant strides in 2025, allowing almost 100 yards less per game than they did in 2024, but they are still surrendering 380.5 yards per game.
In their lone loss this season at Texas A&M, USU gave up 44 points and 554 yards of offense.
Utah State has moved the ball well, and Miles Davis has been a weapon on the ground. The Vandy defense has been stout, though, and currently ranks 11th in the nation against the run.
The Aggies need to find a way to slow down Pavia and the Vandy attack, most likely, by forcing turnovers. Vandy has turned it over three times in their opening four games this season, but has forced eight of them on the other side of the ball.
Vanderbilt’s train keeps on rolling this week with a big win.
Against the spread: Vanderbilt
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Vanderbilt
San Diego State Aztecs at Northern Illinois Huskies
Saturday, September 27
12:30 PM PT, ESPN+
Line: San Diego State –2.5
Over/Under: 42.5
This is a matchup of future Mountain West school Northern Illinois against future former Mountain West school San Diego State.
The Aztecs are 2-0 with two shutouts at home this season. In their one road trip to Washington State, they stunk up the joint. So, can the San Diego State defense travel?
That seems to be the question, and the answer should be Yes. In this one, the SDSU defense should take things over. Northern Illinois enters the game ranked 131st in the nation in total offense, mustering just 275 scrimmage yards per game.
For the Huskies, the identity of the opponent has not mattered so much. Sure, they lost at Mississippi State and Maryland, in which the offense struggled, but in their win over Holy Cross, they only produced 287 yards from scrimmage.
The offense has some limitations.
The Aztecs will need to create more plays in the backfield, however. SDSU is just 124th in the nation in TFLs per game. The defensive front that was supposed to be a strength of the team has yet to click.
San Diego State will dominate this one on the defensive side of the ball. The defense will travel east and bring back a “W.”
Against the spread: San Diego State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: San Diego State
Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors at Air Force Falcons
Saturday, September 27
1:00 PM PT, FS1
Line: Air Force –6.5
Over/Under: 53.5
The Kuter Trophy is on the line in Colorado Springs this weekend. The Warriors won the most recent installment in the series, but the Falcons have soared more often than not in the rivalry, especially when hosting.
UH has left Falcon Stadium with a win just twice in eight visits.
Last season, the Falcons struggled early in the season, and the running game was not up to Air Force’s usual standard. But those issues appear to be a thing of the past.
The Falcons have recorded at least 250 rushing yards and three touchdowns in a Mountain West record seven straight games.
Hawaii has been very good against the run this season. The Warriors have limited opponents to just over 110 yards rushing, and in their wins, that total has been below 100 yards.
If Hawaii can contain the Falcon ground attack, they could get a win on the road.
Air Force has struggled to stop the pass this season, ranking 108th nationally. Micah Alejado and the UH passing attack could be poised for a big game.
I think Hawaii will move the ball. The ‘Bows defense is allowing just 279.8 yards of offense per outing, second in the Mountain West and 29th nationally.
UH gets this one on the road in a tight game.
Against the spread: Hawai’i
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Hawai’i
New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos
Saturday, September 27
4:00 PM PT, MW Network
Line: New Mexico –14.0
Over/Under: 54.5
The battle between the Lobos and Aggies has been a bit one-sided over the course of the Rio Grande Rivalry, with things tilting towards Albuquerque more than two-thirds of the time.
Over the last 55 meetings, the Lobos have come out on top 41 times.
But this season is an oddity in this series; for just the 16th time in 115 meetings between the teams, both enter the game with a winning record. It is just the second time since 1962 that it has been the case.
The big key will be the ground attack of the Lobos vs. the run defense of the Aggies. UNM has run the ball well this season; NM State has been terrible at defending it. Should that trend continue this weekend, the Lobos will obliterate that 14-point spread.
Now, on the other hand, the Aggies have thrown the football well this season, while the Lobos have struggled to defend the pass. So, whichever team does a better job of correcting that weakness will probably be the victor.
UNM has played the much tougher schedule and appears to be the far more polished team at this point.
NM State is in search of its first 3-1 start to a season since 1999, but will keep searching for that. UNM takes this one.
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: New Mexico
San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal
Saturday, September 27
4:30 PM PT, ACC Network
Line: Stanford –2.5
Over/Under: 49.5
Another regional rivalry on tap for the weekend is the Bill Walsh Legacy Game. The Spartans are looking to make it two straight in the series for the first time since 1998-2000.
The Cardinal have played one home game this season, and it was by far their best performance to date, a 30-20 win over Boston College to kick off ACC play a couple of weeks ago.
The Spartans are looking to build off the win over Idaho last week after opening 0-2 with losses at Texas and a disappointing opening loss to Central Michigan.
Stanford’s offense has been sputtering all season, ranking near the bottom of the FBS with just 291.8 yards of offense per game. In the win against BC, the offense produced 399 yards, including 213 on the ground.
San Jose State has struggled against the run this season, ranking 116th in the nation. If Stanford can get Micah Ford going early, they could establish a ground attack.
Similarly, in the Spartans’ lone win of the season, they moved the ball much better on the ground as they went for 198 yards rushing. Meanwhile, in the two losses, they averaged just 80 yards per game running.
Stanford has been good against the run this season, but woefully bad against the pass.
The Spartans will need to stay balanced to be successful, but this could be a game in which Walker Eget shines. The QB is third in the league in passing, and he has the potential to shred the Stanford secondary.
I think the score stays low in this one, but give me the Spartans in the slight upset.
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: San Jose State
Washington State Cougars at Colorado State Rams
Saturday, September 27
4:30 PM PT, CBSSN
Line: Colorado State –4.5
Over/Under: 50.5
This future Pac-12 matchup brings the Cougars to Fort Collins for a date with the Rams. Not to sound too overdramatic, but this one is a must-win for both squads.
The Cougars have looked terrible the last two weeks, giving up 59 points in each of their losses to Washington and at North Texas. That defense has looked about as solid as a dead log.
Offensively, the Cougs are 125th nationally in yardage and 108th in scoring. They have done a good job in the Red Zone, scoring on all 13 of their trips inside the 20. But they have a Red Zone TD rate of just 69.%.
Wazzu just can’t keep leaving points off the board.
For the Rams, the question is, What has happened to Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi? What was set to be a stellar season has turned into a nightmare, and now CSU will turn to Jackson Brousseau under center.
It will be the first time since 2023 that the Rams have opened with a player other than Fowler-Nicolosi at QB. The protection will need to be better as well, as CSU has been giving up two sacks per game.
Will the change at QB payoff long-term for the Rams? We will see, but this week I am not sure it will make much difference.
With apologies to my colleague and friend Nick Bartlett, this Cougar team is not playing good football at the moment. CSU protects the home turf.
Against the spread: Colorado State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Colorado State
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).