What are the prospects for environmental politics in 2026? – Inside track

The government is deeply unpopular but this is a time of anti-politics. We have had seven prime ministers since the iphone was invented; we had seven in the 42 years before that. Keir Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister ever but, as Polly Toynbee points out, each of his four predecessors could have claimed that title. People hate politics and politicians but, in exploring the state of environmental politics and prospects for the year ahead, I will try to avoid the assumption that we are governed by fools and knaves.

Let’s start with the good news. The government has made impressive progress on its clean power mission, it remains strongly committed to net zero and it is championing climate action in its diplomacy. The agenda is not owned solely by Ed Miliband; it has strong support from the PM, the deputy PM and the chancellor.

Good things are happening
Of course, there is much more to do. But I do not buy the line that because the government is doing some bad things (airport expansion, damaging new roads, short sighted and damaging cuts to overseas aid etc) the good things are meaningless.

Its support for climate action is all the more admirable given vigorous opposition from Reform UK (“forward to the 1950s!”) and the Conservatives, who are busy trashing their legacy of climate leadership. The fact is that net zero is not only important for the climate; it is crucial to the country’s economic future and energy security, and the way to lower bills and improved lives. This is the government’s narrative and it retains strong public support.

Climate action is also, of course, essential for nature. You cannot have credible nature policies unless you take climate change seriously. Reform and the Conservatives claim to care about nature but while they shun climate action, no one should take this seriously.

We need to make the win wins on nature and development clearer
But does the government take nature seriously? Many in the environment sector would answer ‘no’. The government made welcome compromises on its planning reforms, but overall it has weakened environmental protection and biodiversity net gain, while ministers’ rhetoric often echoes Liz Truss’s ‘war on nature’.

This is deeply regrettable, but also somewhat predictable. Labour made promises on nature in its manifesto, but its high command has a poor understanding of how strongly people feel about nature and the countryside (witness the doomed year long fight with farmers over inheritance tax). Besides, its top priority was never nature: it was economic growth through building stuff.

This being so, some self-criticism is in order. The environment sector failed to get ahead of the game. We should have done more to sell credible proposals for the ‘win-win’ on nature and development that this government, like its predecessors, wants. In their absence, and assuming a false choice between nature and growth, the government has gone for growth, drawing on umpteen reports from developer-funded, free market think tanks and campaign groups. It has been quite a sight to see a centre left government and many of its MPs ignore Labour’s proud tradition of support for planning and urbanism and instead adopt the thinking of the Tufton Street think tanks. But their intellectual failure is also ours.

We have also failed to persuade Labour apparatchiks that those who care for nature, not least the millions of members of conservation organisations, will vote for it. That said, my hunch is that, come the election, Labour ministers will regret that they pitted nature, the countryside and the places people care about against economic growth.

Positive plans must now turn into action
Planning and the anti-nature rhetoric of senior ministers have distracted attention from the many positive things Defra is doing. As Lydia Collas says in a recent Green Alliance blog, it deserves praise for continuing the green farming transition started by the last Conservative government. It is farming policy that will play the biggest part in restoring nature. The Land Use Framework has the potential to provide a big boost for nature and the rural economy. The Environmental Improvement Plan contains many promising commitments, though it will be easier to believe in them if the prime minister and chancellor can show that it is not merely Defra’s plan but a whole government commitment.

The promised food strategy could be transformational, though again, it will need strong ambition and support across government. Green Alliance strongly welcomed Steve Reed’s focus on the circular economy, but the publication of a new strategy has been a long time coming and we do not know how ambitious it will be, or whether it will be seriously supported across Whitehall.

There is a theme here: many of the positive things coming out of Defra are plans and proposals. This must be the year when plans turn to action.

What of the main UK opposition parties?  
There is not much to say about Reform. They deny the reality of human-made climate change and have nothing sensible to say on energy policy. The Conservatives have a proud record of climate leadership and Kemi Badenoch says she acknowledges the reality of climate change. But the party has moved from questioning net zero and the Climate Change Act to opposing almost all climate ambition. This is bad for business, investment and our global reputation. I hope the Conservatives will stop aping Reform and return to the centre ground on climate policy.

And I hope the Lib Dems will be more vocal on climate and nature. They have good policies and Ed Davey is a credible climate champion, but they are punching below their weight on these issues.

Finally, Zack Polanski and the Greens. They have soared up the polls and persuaded Labour strategists that the party faces threats from progressives, as well as from the populist right. Zack Polanski spoke to Green Alliance about the need to rebuild the environmental consensus: I hope he will do so more widely in the coming year.

In 2025, many environmental groups felt they were locked in a battle over planning policy. This was a fight over the details of the government’s proposals, but it was made more bitter by the foolish rhetoric of some ministers and MPs. This year, let’s cool the rhetoric (that’s down to the government) and focus on rebuilding the climate consensus, making real gains for nature and delivering an ambitious circular economy strategy.