In China, the rapid buildout of wind and solar power is pushing coal into decline. China is now upgrading its vast fleet of coal plants to serve as a complement to wind and solar, rather than as a source of baseload power. Analysts say the country is on track to retrofit almost every coal plant by the end of next year.
Last year, solar output grew by a staggering 43 percent, helping to push coal output down by roughly 2 percent, even as overall demand grew, according to an analysis from Carbon Brief. The shift to renewables has meant that, for close to two years, China’s emissions have been flat or falling.
To aid the shift to wind and solar, officials set a goal of upgrading nearly every coal plant by 2027 to ramp up and down quickly. More flexible coal generators will be able to fill in gaps in wind or solar power or meet spikes in demand.
Already, the average coal plant is running less frequently than it was a decade ago, according to an analysis from energy think tank Ember. There are also bigger swings in coal output between seasons, a sign that coal is moving into a supporting role.
Coal is less suited to the task of providing backup power than natural gas power plants or batteries, analysts say, but those two power sources are in relatively short supply. China has few gas power plants, owing to its meager reserves of natural gas, and while it is racing to add battery storage, batteries still account for a small share of its power capacity.
In the near term, analysts say, the sheer scale of China’s coal fleet makes it the best option for balancing wind and solar power.
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