Lt Gen Richard Nugee is a retired British Army officer who has served as defence services secretary and has written reviews of climate change for the MoD.
He said: “I have long argued that we should be looking at every single aspect of our national security through the lens of how climate change or biodiversity loss impact it.
“The way to do that is to have a small very diverse group, which includes people like insurers and security chiefs who wouldn’t normally be associated with climate change and biodiversity loss, and ask them how it affects their ability to do their jobs and keep our national security safe.”
Reliance
The assessment names six ecosystem regions that are critical for UK national security given the scale, likelihood and impact of their collapse.
These are the Amazon rainforest, the Congo basin, coral reefs and mangroves in South East Asia, the Himalaya, the boreal forests of Russia and Canada.
Nature is the foundation of national security, the assessment notes. Increasingly scarce natural resources will drive greater competition between state and non-state actors, exacerbating existing conflicts, starting new ones and threatening global security and prosperity.
It lists these as:
- Severe degradation or collapse would drive displacement of millions, change global weather patterns, increase global food and water scarcity, and drive geopolitical competition for remaining resources.
- National security risks from ecosystem collapse include migration rise as more people are pushed into poverty and food and water insecurity.
- There could also be a rise in serious and organised crime such as people trafficking and black markets, which will look to exploit and gain control over scare resources. Terrorist groups will also have more opportunities resulting from political instability.
- The risk of pandemic will increase as biodiversity degrades, people move between countries and transfer of novel diseases between species becomes more likely.
- Nature is a finite asset which underpins the global economy, meaning that economic insecurity will become more likely as natural resources are used up.
- Geopolitical competition will increase as countries compete for scarce resources including arable land, productive waters, safe transit routes and critical minerals.
- Meanwhile, political polarisation and instability will grow in food and water insecure areas and as populations become more vulnerable to natural disasters. Disinformation will increase.
- Conflict and military escalation will become more likely, both within and between states, as groups compete for arable land and food and water resources, while existing conflicts will be exacerbated.
Security
The assessment focusses in particular on Britain’s food security, which it stresses will be challenged by ecosystem degradation or collapse.
The country imports 40 per cent of its food from overseas, with over 25 per cent coming from Europe. It is particularly reliant on imports of fresh fruit, vegetables and sugar.
Animal farming in Britain depends on imports of livestock feed such as soy from South America, which makes up 18 per cent of produced animal feed. Britain is also partially reliant on imports of both nitrogen and phosphorus for fertiliser.
For Britain to be fully self-sufficient on food based on current diets would require ‘very substantial’ price increases for consumers, as well as improvements in efficiency, waste reduction and resilience across the food system, including agricultural production, food processing, distribution and consumption, the assessment notes.
There is not have enough land to feed its population and rear livestock: a wholesale change in consumer diets would be required.
Regenerative
There would also need to be greater investment in the agri-food sector so that it is capable of innovating in sustainable food production, it states.
But the report cautions that Britain’s food production is also vulnerable to ecosystem degradation and collapse.
Depleted soils, loss of pollinators, drought and flood conditions are among the biggest medium to long term threat to domestic food production, alongside climate change.
“Ecosystem collapse would place the UK’s agriculture system under great stress, leaving it struggling to pivot to the new approaches and technologies that would be required to maintain food supply,” its authors state.
Some technologies exist that could help alleviate this situation, such as plant pre-breeding, regenerative agriculture and emerging technologies AI, lab grown protein and insect protein.
Underestimated
However, these need significant research, development and investment to have a chance of working at scale. Protecting and restoring ecosystems is “easier, cheaper and more reliable”, it concludes.
Laurie Laybourn director of the strategic climate risks initiative and visiting fellow at the University of Exeter said: “Tipping points are moments when parts of the climate system can abruptly break effectively, and there are some of those now that we cannot rule out.
“They would profoundly affect the UK. At the moment, we don’t have national security risk assessments for those kinds of things, even though they would profoundly affect our ability to grow food domestically, and all sorts of other things,” he says.
For decades there has been a debate about whether some of the warnings from scientists have been alarmist but it turns out that rather than overestimating the problem, in reality, the problems have been underestimated, he added.
‘Mind-blowing’
Dr Michael Burgass, director at consultancy Biodiversify, said: “This isn’t another NGO white paper. This is a real warning about the potentially huge impacts of ecosystem collapse on society. At the centre of this of course is business.
“Clearly the consequences of getting this wrong are unthinkable for society but this is also a clear problem for business: no one can succeed when core systems begin to fail. It’s horrible being alarmist, but this report is mind-blowing.”
The government said that the assessment would support its long-term resilience planning. In a statement, it said that the findings of the assessment will inform efforts to build resilience domestically and internationally to protect and restore ecosystems that underpin shared global security.
It added that the UK was one of the most food-secure nations in the world.
It denied that publication of the report was delayed: “The assessment was developed through cross-government analytical and clearance processes, including consideration of how and when it should be published. It is being published now following completion of those processes and in line with the Government’s commitment to transparency and informed decision-making.”
This Author
Catherine Early is the chief reporter for The Ecologist and a freelance environmental journalist. Find her on Bluesky @catearly.bsky.social.