Exit polls forecast that Lee Jae-myung will handily win South Korea’s presidential election, which was held today. Lee is the leader of the left-wing Democratic Party, which already holds a majority in the National Assembly. The vote caps a six-month period of political instability in South Korea following then-President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ill-fated and short-lived decision to declare martial law in December, a move that ultimately led to his impeachment and removal from office. (Washington Post)
Our Take
While this election will likely return South Korea to a greater level of political stability, especially since Lee will have a legislative majority to work with, it is no panacea for the underlying issues plaguing South Korean politics. In many ways, the past six months of political turmoil have both reflected and exacerbated those issues, which range from deep-seated distrust between political parties and societal polarization to economic challenges and corruption. In fact, Lee himself is facing several trials over corruption-related charges that almost kept him from running in today’s contest.
Meanwhile, South Korea faces several major foreign policy challenges that the interim leadership has been unable to meaningfully address, most obviously U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and his still unsettled priorities for the Asia-Pacific region. In principle, Lee’s election could be an irritant to bilateral relations, as left-wing South Korean presidents generally tend to have worse relations with Washington, in large part because they are wary of overreliance on the United States.