While Texas Democrats have thus far been successful in preventing their Republican counterparts from passing an aggressive gerrymander, in the long run, the deck is stacked against them.
Texas state Rep. James Talarico told Salon that he and his colleagues are “all committed to staying out of the Texas Capitol at least until the end of this special session.” When asked whether they were preparing for a scenario where Texas Republicans call another special session, Talarico said that “We’ll cross that bridge if it happens.”
Though Texas Democrats have successfully forestalled efforts by Republicans to squeeze five extra GOP seats out of the state — and have so far not buckled under significant threats leveled by the Texas GOP — the quorum breakers are in a more vulnerable position than their opponents. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, has also launched a parallel pressure campaign asking the FBI to bring state Democrats back to Texas.
Members of the Texas House earn only $600 a month, meaning most members maintain a full-time job in addition to their political work — jobs that Texas Democrats will have to stay away from as long as they are breaking quorum.
Special sessions in Texas can last up to 30 days, meaning that Democrats are already preparing to be away from their jobs and families for a month. But, per Texas state law, there’s no limit on the number of special sessions the governor can call, meaning once Democrats return, Gov. Greg Abbot can call another session, potentially starting the whole process over again.
“Democrats act like they’re not going to come back as long as this is an issue,” Abbott told NBC News last Friday. “That means they’re not going to come back until like 2027 or 2028, because I’m going to call special session after special session after special session with the same agenda items on there.”
According to Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, Abbot’s ability to call another special session is only one of many complicating factors at play in the redistricting fight.
“It’s super fluid, because there’s a difference between the politics of what’s going on and the realities, and there’s a lot of political posturing, and that’s kind of confusing the situation,” Blank told Salon.
Blank explained that, despite threats by Republicans to have the FBI force Democrats back to Texas or to declare the seats of Democratic lawmakers vacant, there are two ways that Democrats could come out of this with a favorable outcome.
The first way Democrats could win is if Republicans get tired of doing the work to force the gerrymander through and give up. Because Texas state representatives are paid so little for their work in government, and because many — if not most — are not from the Austin area, Republicans would need to travel to attend legislative sessions. Travel costs could add up and prevent lawmakers from doing any other jobs.
Blank also pointed out that the current gerrymandering effort has made Texas House Republicans face significant exposure over an effort that doesn’t actually directly affect them, given that they plan to redistrict the federal House districts and not the state House districts that they represent. And, if Republicans do want to level financial penalties against Democrats for breaking quorum, they would also have to do so against any absent Republicans.
“It’s not like this is a top priority, other than for the president, which means it’s the top priority for Republicans, but not personally,” Blank said. “Ultimately, there are a bunch of Republicans who don’t want to be there for five minutes a day either, right? And you’d have to charge them the $500 too,” he said, referring to the fine imposed on lawmakers for being “absent without leave.”
The second way Democrats may emerge from this battle victorious is less clear. Democrats could manage to break quorum until the last possible moment for Republicans to implement their new maps has passed. The problem is that it’s not exactly obvious when that deadline might be
In the past, the filing deadline for federal House candidates on December 8 has served as the de facto deadline for changes to House districts. However, Blank said the power to determine when the last possible opportunity to implement maps resides with the courts, meaning that the actual timeline for a successful quorum break is indeterminate.
“This is just much more complicated than it seems to anybody on the surface. It’s not as though, if Democrats returned to the state, Republicans would be able to call a special session, move the bill through the process, having compelled them all to attend there, possibly by force, and get it done,” Blank said.
Even Republicans executing on their threats of removing Democrats from their elected positions is likely to take time, Blank said, as courts would have to go case by case, looking at whatever evidence Republicans are able to provide. Importantly, the Texas constitution also provides a mechanism for the removal of members of the Texas House through impeachment proceedings in the Texas House; a court might be hesitant to wield power explicitly delegated to another branch.
“The only quick solution is if enough Democrats end up wandering back into Texas to provide Republicans with a quorum.
How long Texas Democrats can block a gerrymander through quorum-breaking will likely come down to their ability to fundraise for their cause and the cost of any fines that may be imposed.
Start your day with essential news from Salon.
Sign up for our free morning newsletter, Crash Course.
While Texas Democrats and national politicians immediately started fundraising to help prolong the fight against GOP gerrymandering plans, it’s unclear how long the quorum breakers will be able to stay out of state.
A Texas judge recently blocked former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas, from using his fundraising apparatus to fund Democrats. While the judge’s block is temporary, it will prevent O’Rourke’s organization and others like it from using funds to pay for travel, lodging or fines incurred during the quorum break.
There are, potentially, other funding sources. The billionaire governor of Illinois, JB Prtitzker, told NBC News last Thursday, “I have not written a check or supported them financially, though I am not reticent to do that,” signaling that he may be willing to bankroll the fight.
Of course, whatever money Democrats are able to raise may not be enough, either, with Abbot promising to call another 30-day special session every 30 days until the GOP’s new House maps are forced through.
“If they show back up in the state of Texas, they will be arrested and taken to the Capitol. If they want to evade that arrest, they’re gonna have to stay outside of the state of Texas for literally years,” Abbot told Fox News.
Read more
about GOP gerrymandering