To say that Donald Trump’s second term is more chaotic and volatile than his chaotic and volatile first term is, at this point, a cliché. There are no guardrails to stop him from making destructive decisions. By “guardrails,” most people generally mean serious, experienced hands who can advise him of a more sensible and judicious course in his decision-making, and who are perceptive enough about his psychology to understand how to handle him with misdirection and diversions to focus his attention on a safer path than he would otherwise choose on his own.
It’s not the optimal way to run a presidential administration. But when dealing with Trump, a person who seems to possess a very limited understanding of the way the world actually works, and very little desire or capacity to learn about it, such a process is probably the only way to ensure that the country doesn’t go completely off the rails.
As much as people learned to manage him — to save the country from his worst impulses — during his first term, everyone now knows they can manipulate him for their own ends in the second.
In every important issue area marking these first few months of his second term, Trump’s impulsive, labile character has been exposed in one way or another. As much as people learned to manage him — to save the country from his worst impulses — during his first term, everyone now knows they can manipulate him for their own ends in the second. That includes foreign adversaries, and even certain allies with their own axes to grind.
Take, for example, Trump’s big “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement on April 2, which was received with a mix of shock and bemusement by the entire world and caused an epic stock market crash. From the moment he showed his amateurish chart unveiling tariffs for individual countries, it was obvious there was no discernible formula — which should have been predicted by the fact that Trump has always erroneously based his obsession with tariffs on the idea that a trade deficit means America is “losing.”
In fact, he has no understanding of how tariffs work, something that has been made crystal clear by his changing and contradicting explanations of his goals. On the one hand, he says that high tariffs will make it possible to end the income tax. On the other hand, he claims they are designed to force foreign companies to move their factories to the United States, which logically means that import revenues would fall. While he says tariffs are a negotiating tool, he also says he will unilaterally decide what is fair and will send countries a letter telling them what they will pay. Despite evidence (and logic) to the contrary, he continues to insist that foreign countries pay the tariffs, that they are not being passed on to American companies and consumers.
The Wall Street traders who coined the TACO meme (Trump Always Chickens Out) have figured out how to take advantage of Trump’s inexplicable stop and start process by simply observing that his bullying tactics are bluffs. They have learned to anticipate his moves — and to make a lot of money in the process. It’s a sure bet that quite a few people around Trump have made a bundle doing the same. He calls this “negotiating” — people with portfolios call it a tell. But when the economy really starts to falter over the tariffs, nobody involved is going to be laughing. And Trump will have no idea how to fix it because he won’t listen to anyone who puts the country’s well-being above their own interests.
His immigration policies have also been scattershot. One week, his enforcer Stephen Miller is yelling at ICE supervisors that they have to start rounding up undocumented workers at Home Depot, sparking a massive protest and giving him and Trump the excuse they have been looking for to bring troops into America’s big blue cities. The next week, he’s announcing that farmers and hotel owners don’t like to see their long-term undocumented employees being deported and instructs ICE to stop their efforts in those sectors. A few days later, the administration quietly rescinds that order and Trump announces he is sending tactical units to Chicago and New York to bring the hammer down on immigrants and officials in these “Democrat Power Centers” who are “sick” and “hate America.”
The point is that because Trump doesn’t really know how to finesse this situation in a way that can satisfy all the stakeholders, he lurches from one decision to another, dancing as fast as he can and hoping that, somehow, it will all work out in the end.
The most glaring example of this phenomenon is in the realm of foreign policy. His bully boy posture against American allies is largely a performance he thinks makes him look like a strongman. But the real strongmen see right through him. The man who claimed he would end the war in Ukraine with one phone call on day one has been shown to be totally impotent when it comes to dealing with Russian president Vladimir Putin. After wailing for the past three years that all he wants is for “everyone to stop dying” in Ukraine, Trump has been reduced to weakly mewling that Ukraine and Russia may just have to “fight it out.” Since Putin knows that Trump is a paper tiger, the Russian president is doing exactly what he wants.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has clearly taken the same lesson. He tried to persuade Trump to help Israel strike Iran. Trump dithered and stalled because he thought he could make one of his vaunted “deals,” so Netanyahu finally just went ahead and did it anyway. According to the New York Times, Trump was left standing limply on the sidelines, not knowing how to respond — until he watched Fox News celebrating the brilliance of the Israeli operation and decided to jump on the bandwagon. At this point we don’t know if he will cave to pressure from Netanyahu and agree to join the offensive operation. But Trump is enjoying the rush of taking credit for what Israel has done so far.
Friend and foe alike have figured out that Trump is even more clueless and mystified by the job of being president than he was in his first term. And they are all becoming adept at using his ignorance and confusion for their own ends.
He has become an easy mark. And so has our country.
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