Week 4 Big Ten Previews: Trojans Set to Spar with Spartans


  By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports


Conference play kicks off in earnest in the Big Ten this week with five conference games, including a couple of huge ones.

Big Ten logoBig Ten logoFor the West Coast schools, it is Rivalry Week in the Pacific Northwest, with the Ducks hosting the Beavers and Washington heading to Washington State.

USC plays its second Big Ten contest while rival UCLA has a much-needed week off to adjust to coaching changes.

The Deshaun Foster experiment is over, and some might argue it never really got started. Tim Skipper steps into the interim head coaching role and will try to turn around an already dismal season in Westwood.

For the conference as a whole, four teams currently rank in the AP Top 10, while nine of the 18 member institutions are at least receiving votes—including three of the four programs from the West.

I look at the most intriguing Big Ten games of the weekend below, including Maryland at Wisconsin, Michigan at Nebraska, and Illinois at Indian, along with our usual spotlight on regional contests.

marylandmarylandMaryland at Wisconsin espn%2Bwisconsin.pngespn%2Bwisconsin.png

Saturday, September 20
9:00 AM PT, Big Ten Network

Line: Wisconsin –10
Over/Under: 43.5

The Terps extended their NCAA leading non-conference win streak to 18 games with their perfect 3-0 start to the season. Now things will get more interesting as they head into Big Ten play with a trip to Madison.

The hot start can be attributed to the strong play of true freshman QB Malik Washington, whose 773 passing yards this season are the most by a true freshman through three career games in a Power Conference since 2018.

But again, the Badgers will provide a stiffer defense than Towson—or at least they should.

Last week, Wisconsin was torched by Ty Simpson and Alabama through the air as the Tide amassed 382 yards passing. If the Badgers can’t keep Washington in check, the freshman could be on his way to a record-setting start to his career.

Malik WashingtonMalik Washington
Malik Washington | Maryland Athletics

But the Badgers should be able to shut down the rushing attack of the Terps.

Billy Edwards is working his way back from an injury and might be ready to face his old team this week. If he can’t go, it will once again be Danny Oneil’s show, and his performances this season have been very uneven.

The real key for Wisconsin is moving the ball on the ground; they need to do better than the 92 yards they had in the loss last week. If the ground game gets going, the passing game will open up.

I think Wisconsin will make Maryland one-dimensional in this one, and while the passing game might produce some yardage, it will not be enough to win.  The game stays low scoring, but the Badgers get the win.

Against the spread: Wisconsin
Points Total:  Under
Outright winner: Wisconsin

espn%2Boregon%2Bstate.pngespn%2Boregon%2Bstate.pngOregon State at No. 6 Oregon Oregon Ducks LogoOregon Ducks Logo

Saturday, September 20
12:30 PM PT, Big Ten Network

Line: Oregon –35.5
Over/Under: 55.5

The biggest key for the Ducks in this one is to. . . Focus on this one!

Don’t get caught looking ahead to the Penn State game next week, or the Beavs could spoil things. Being the rivalry that it is, I don’t anticipate any overlooking of OSU on Oregon’s part.

These teams are going in different directions.

Oregon looks as good as any team in the nation after three weeks. The offense is moving the ball at will and has yet to allow a sack. And Dante Moore has silenced all of the preseason doubts.

Defensively, the Ducks are allowing just 133 passing yards per game and have picked off four passes.

Oregon State has not been able to stop anyone this season, allowing 424 yards per game and 6.74—ranking 125th in the nation in opponents’ yards per play.

Dante MooreDante Moore
Dante Moore | David Banks

On offense, the Beavers have not been able to move the ball on the ground at all, and they were held to eight rushing yards in the loss last week.

The passing game has had some good moments, such as the 388 yards against Fresno State, but it took 49 pass attempts to get there. The Beavs have had a 100-yard receiver in each of their last five games, the longest such streak since 2005.

The offense has some firepower, but throwing against the Ducks will be a tall order.

This is a huge rivalry, and you never know what to expect when these two teams meet, but this season it seems like the gap is gigantic. Trent Bray might be closer to losing the locker room than turning this thing around.

Oregon has won 21 consecutive regular-season games and 17 straight at home. Those streaks will reach 22 and 18, respectively, on Saturday, with a big win over OSU.

Against the spread: Oregon
Points Total:  Over
Outright winner: Oregon

Michigan Wolverines logoMichigan Wolverines logoNo. 21 Michigan at Nebraska Nebraska Cornhuskers logoNebraska Cornhuskers logo

Saturday, September 20
12:30 PM PT, CBS

Line: Michigan –2.5
Over/Under: 45.5

This is a battle of blue bloods.

The Cornhuskers are 3-0 over the last two weeks, winning by a combined score of 127-7.

Nebraska is one of just two teams in the nation to rank in the Top 10 in both passing efficiency and pass efficiency defense, posting an opening win over a solid Cincinnati team with a talented QB in Brendan Sorsby.

Michigan’s freshman QB Bryce Underwood could have his work cut out for him against the Husker defense.

Bryce UnderwoodBryce Underwood
Bryce Underwood | Junfu Han/USA TODAY Network

Underwood and the Wolverines have faced a road test this season with their trip to Oklahoma. And while Nebraska has been good against the pass, it is the ground attack that is still the bread and butter of the Maize and Blue.

Michigan is rushing for 242.7 yards per game this season, ranking 15th in the nation. Against OU, they churned out 146 yards at almost five yards a pop.

Nebraska is susceptible to big run plays, as they have already allowed 14 runs of 10+ yards this season.

Dylan Raiola is going to make some plays for the Huskers, and the crowd will give them a boost. But I think Michigan gets the win in a tight game this week.

Against the spread: Michigan
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan

Ilinois logoIlinois logoNo. 9 Illinois at No. 19 IndianaIndiana Hoosiers logoIndiana Hoosiers logo

Saturday, September 20
4:30 PM PT, NBC

Line: Indiana –4.5
Over/Under: 52.5

In what world would Illinois at Indiana (in football) overshadow a Michigan vs Nebraska game in the Big Ten?

But that is what we have in Bloomington this week. This one almost has a Playoff game feel to it, with the winner having an inside track to the CFP, while the losing team will be on the outside looking in, for sure.

Illinois enters this contest riding a seven-game winning streak, tied for the longest active streak in the nation. Indiana has won their last 11 home games, the longest home win streak in program history.

Both teams feature excellent QBs, with Luke Altmyer throwing for the Illini and Fernando Mendoza under center for the Hoosiers.

Fernando MendozaFernando Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza | FOX Sports

In their win against Duke, Illinois was held in check on the ground but forced the Blue Devils to turn the ball over five times. Mendoza has completed 72.4% of his passes at 9.3 yards per attempt and has yet to turn it over in three games.

I don’t care who the opponents are; those numbers are incredible. Furthermore, the Hoosiers have a deep group of running backs who are averaging 307.7 rushing yards per game.

Illinois will need to stay patient with the run game. Indiana will make a lot of plays in the backfield, but could be susceptible to giving up a home run or two on the ground.

The big key is turnovers, and I don’t see Mendoza giving the ball away. We saw him will Cal to some big-time performances in the past with less talent around him than he has at IU.

This one goes down to the wire, but Indiana gets the win.

Against the spread: Illinois
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Indiana

Washington football logoWashington football logoWashington at Washington State Washington State logoWashington State logo

Saturday, September 20
4:30 PM PT, CBS

Line: Washington –19.5
Over/Under: 52.5

It is the Apple Cup for the 117th time.

The Huskies rank fourth in the nation in rushing, scampering for 303.5 yards per game. In the win over Colorado State, they ran it 51 times, averaging 5.6 yards per tote.

The Cougs saw Idaho run for 188 yards against them in the opener, and last week, North Texas averaged 5.6 yards per carry in the Mean Green’s win.

Expect Jonah Coleman to get a ton of carries and a ton of yards.

And of course, Washington’s ground attack is not reliant on just Coleman. Adam Mohammed and Demond Williams have also been elite on the ground so far this season. Both of them are averaging 10.5 carries per game at over 5.7 yards per carry.

For good measure, Williams is also throwing it for 240 yards a game while connecting on nearly 70% of his passes.

Kirby VorheesKirby Vorhees
Kirby Vorhees | The Seattle Times

Washington State’s rushing attack is 133rd in the nation, averaging just 68.8 yards per game this season, and Wazzu’s passing attack has been nowhere near good enough to make up for that lack of production.

The Husky secondary is too talented to become a one-dimensional offense.

The Cougars have been very good against the pass this season, and if they can take the run away from UW, they could find success on defense. As mentioned, though, the UW rushing attack will come at you from too many places and from different looks.

Washington State will not be able to keep the ground game in check, and the Cougs don’t have the offensive weapons to keep pace.

UW has won 19 of the last 26 versions of the Apple Cup, and they head west with a win in this one.

Against the spread: Washington
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Washington

Michigan State Spartans logoMichigan State Spartans logoMichigan State at No. 25 USC usc logousc logo

Saturday, September 20
8:00 PM PT, FOX

Line: USC –18.5
Over/Under: 55.5

Last week USC was the far better team in their matchup against Purdue, and things are set up the same way are once again this week. The Trojans are a better football team than Michigan State, and it is not that close.

However, this one may not be a cakewalk.

Aidan Chiles keeps on improving at QB for MSU, and the former Oregon State signal-caller can make plays and improvise. If he gets on a hot streak, the Trojans could find themselves in a dog fight—well, for a little while, at least.

The Spartans at full strength are still not at the level this season to compete with USC, and MSU is not at full strength.

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Leading receiver Nick Marsh and leading rusher Makhi Frazier have lower body injuries, and even if they are able to go Saturday, will be a shell of themselves.

Oh, and the Spartans will need to adjust to the 11:00 pm Eastern Time start. Oh, and the MSU pass defense has been atrocious this season.

USC has been the sixth-best passing team in the nation this season. MSU may make it difficult to run the ball, but it will not matter. Jayden Maiava could have a field day in this one.

The 18.5 points is an awfully heavy number to cover; it might not be heavy enough.  The Trojans beat up on the over matched and banged up Spartans.

Against the spread: USC
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: USC

Stephen VilardoStephen Vilardo
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