Week 6 MW Previews: Spotlight on Boise St at Notre Dame

New Mexico Lobos at San Jose State Spartans

Friday, October 3
7:00 PM PT, FS1

Line: San Jose State –2.5
Over/Under: 58.5

A season that began with so much promise for the Spartans has yielded a 1-3 start and not a single win over an FBS opponent in the first month of action.

But the calendar switches over to October, and conference play begins for San Jose State. Last season, the Spartans opened slowly only to rebound in conference play. We will see if things play out similarly this season.

New Mexico opens conference play in this one as well, but the Lobos performed drastically differently in their first month than their hosts. UNM is 3-1 with a win over one Big Ten opponent, and the only loss came at Michigan and the Lobos held their own.

Jason Eck has the Lobos playing well in his first season in Albuquerque. UNM has been good defensively, and the Lobos have found balance on the offensive side of the ball.

The Spartans have been giving up yards in bulk this season and the SJSU defense is 117th in the nation. I don’t think the Spartans have enough firepower to get in a shootout with New Mexico.

San Jose State has won 10 of the last 12 in the series, and the last time UNM won in Silicon Valley was 1969.

New Mexico bucks the trend and heads home 1-0 in conference play.

Against the spread: New Mexico
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: New Mexico

Colorado State Rams at San Diego State Aztecs

Friday, October 3
7:30 PM PT, CBSSN

Line: San Diego State –5.5
Over/Under: 39.5

Similar to the other Friday night conference game, this one features a pair of teams opening league after drastically different starts to the 2025 season.

Defensively, this season it has been all or nothing for the Aztecs. In their three wins they have allowed three total points and just 184.3 yards per game. In the lone loss to Washington State, they allowed 396 yards and 34 points.

For Colorado State on offense this season, it has been a lot of nothing.

Defensively the Rams have been solid; despite facing two of the best backs in the nation this season—Jonah Coleman of UW and NCAA Rushing leader Robert Henry of UTSA—allowing only 23.0 points per outing.

Owen Long leads the nation with 13 tackles per game to pace the Rams on that side of the ball.

Look for a lot of running in this game as both teams will try to establish things on the ground. Both rank among the bottom 35 nationally in passing.

SDSU is 21st in the nation this season against the run, limiting opponents to just 91.3 per contest. The Rams could have a difficult time getting much traction on the ground.

The Rams are looking for their first win in San Diego since 2016, and they’ll keep looking for that win.

Against the spread: San Diego State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: San Diego State

Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen

Saturday, October 4
9:00 AM PT, CBS

Line: Navy –11.5
Over/Under: 49.5

We find ourselves in the second full month of the season and this will be just the second non-conference game for the Falcons. The lone win this season for Air Force was in their lone non-con game.

Over the last five seasons the Falcons are 16-5 against non-conference opponents. Can that trend continue when they meet their rivals in Maryland?

Navy has also played three conference games in the opening month, but the Midshipmen find themselves 3-0 in the American to open the season.

That makes them one of only two teams nationally to be 3-0 in their conference before we reach October (Ole Miss is the other).

Obviously, both teams run the football very well. The Midshipmen are doing it quite a bit better so far in 2025. Navy leads the nation in rushing yards per game with 352.25.

That is 98 yards better than the Falcons this season, who are seventh in the nation.

Navy has also been more adept at slowing down ground attacks this season as the Mids are limiting opponents to just 91.6 rushing yards per game, 24th best in the nation.

Conversely, the Falcons are giving up 160.8 on the ground to rank 91st in the country.

The home team is 9-3 in the last 12 games played in the series; Navy will make it 10 of the last 13 for the home squad.

Against the spread: Navy
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Navy

Boise State Broncos at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, October 4
12:30 PM PT, NBC

Line: Notre Dame –20.5
Over/Under: 63.5

The Broncos step out of conference play and into the national spotlight with a trip to Notre Dame this week.

Boise State is coming off a dominant defensive game, limiting App State to just 184 yards of offense and creating four takeaways.

Last week, Notre Dame was able to do whatever it wanted to do offensively, boat-racing Arkansas in Fayetteville.

The Irish have looked very good the last two weeks against really bad teams. But let’s not forget this team is 0-2 against teams with a pulse.

The Broncos are 3-1 overall, with the lone loss to USF on the road still looking like a forgivable stumble.

Notre Dame’s defense has gotten shredded this season. I mean, the Razorbacks are offensively challenged and still managed to pass for 303 yards against them.

The Irish are allowing 5.85 yards per play, and the Boise State offense ranks ninth nationally, averaging 520 yards per game. The Broncos will get plenty of production when they have the ball.

Now the problem for the Broncos will come when Notre Dame has the football. The Irish offense is explosive, and their ground attack, led by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, will cause problems for Boise State.

It is a green game for Notre Dame, and the Irish are 6-1 in “Irish Wear Green” games since 2018. They will be 7-1 in such games after this one, but it will be much closer than the three-TD spread in a very high-scoring contest.

Against the spread: Boise State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Notre Dame

UNLV Rebels at Wyoming Cowboys

Saturday, October 4
4:00 PM PT, CBSSN

Line: UNLV –3.5
Over/Under: 52.5

This is the conference opener for both the Rebels and Cowboys, and while the Rebels enter with a perfect 4-0 mark, it hardly feels like an unblemished record.

UNLV has looked sloppy for much of the season and has had a few furious comeback wins. The Rebels are the second most penalized team in the nation, with 86.8 yards per game in penalties against them.

Wyoming opened the season 2-2 with a pair of losses to power conference opponents, vs. Utah and at Colorado. The Cowboys have played excellent defense and will try to control things with their ground attack.

The Pokes have also been plagued by penalties at times this season as they are getting flagged eight times per game for 70 yards.

The Rebels have been opportunistic and currently sit fifth in the nation with a turnover margin of +1.5 per game. UNLV’s eight interceptions this season are the second most in the nation.

Wyoming has been pretty good hanging on the the football and moving the ball on the ground will be key. If the Pokes don’t have to throw it much, then the Rebels can’t pick it off.

UNLV needs to stack the box and dare UW to throw the ball against them. If the Rebels can take away the ground game, I like them to win. The Rebels have not been able to do that to an opponent yet.

I think Wyoming controls the pace and, in turn, limits the turnovers and gets the upset win.

Against the spread: Wyoming
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Wyoming

Nevada Wolf Pack at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, October 4
7:30 PM PT, CBSSN

Line: Fresno State –14
Over/Under: 44.5

Nevada kicks off conference play while the Bulldogs dip their toe into league waters for the second time this season.

Fresno State has already collected a big road win at Hawaii.

The lone win for the Wolf Pack this season was a three-point win over Sacramento State. The lone loss for the Bulldogs was on the road at Kansas as the Jayhawks opened up their shiny new digs.

Explosive plays have been missing entirely from the Nevada offense this season while Fresno State has yet to allow a play to cover more than 38 yards this season. The Bulldogs have only had five runs against them of 20+ yards this season.

If the Wolf Pack are to stand a chance they will need to pop a few big ones on Saturday.

The Bulldogs have gotten points from a variety of sources this season with three of their 21 TDs on the season coming from either the defense or special teams.

When Fresno State has the ball, E.J. Warner has been potent this season. His completion percentage of 73.2% is the eighth best in the nation in 2025.

Quite simply, Nevada will have no answer for the Bulldogs on either side of the ball.

Against the spread: Fresno State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Fresno State