The world is set to blow past its goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C, new research shows.
Last year was the first to measure roughly 1.5 degrees warmer than the preindustrial era, though the world has not yet officially surpassed the 1.5-degree target set forth in the Paris Agreement, which will be judged according to the average temperature over 20 years. But with emissions hitting new highs, this target is almost certainly out of reach, according to two new papers published in Nature Climate Change.
Scientists used modeling to show that just one year at 1.5 degrees C likely heralds a future breaching of the Paris goal. The papers suggest that last year’s record temperatures mean the world will probably exceed the 1.5-degree threshold over the next 20 years.
Scientists from the University of Melbourne, who were not involved with the research, said the findings indicate that even a single month at 1.5 degrees C “may signify Earth is entering a long-term breach of that vital threshold.” Writing in The Conversation, they said, “These studies are a sobering reminder of how far short humanity is falling in tackling climate change.”
Troublingly, over the past two years the pace of warming appears to have accelerated, though the reasons are still unclear. A recent drop in smog, which blocks sunlight, may be driving the apparent spike in warming. The ocean may also be losing its ability to store excess heat.
Last month was the hottest January on record, despite the onset of a cooling La Niña. It measured 1.75 degrees C warmer than the preindustrial era.
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